IPCC-based Scenario Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Carbon Credit Potential in Lagos Megacity Waste

The ineffective management of MSW, where open dumping and uncontrolled burning characterize the Lagos Megacity, poses severe environmental and public health challenges while contributing to GHG emissions by a wide margin.

The project identified the carbon credit value of the solid waste industry of Lagos through the estimation of the greenhouse gas emissions for each of the seven scenarios of solid waste management. The IPCC 2006 recommendations, with 2019 modifications for open dumping, managed landfilling, composting, anaerobic digestion, incineration, open burning, and recycling of solid waste, were used to estimate the emissions.

The outcome suggests the potential for the acquisition of about 631 million CERs as a result of the transition to sustainable approaches in waste management, which, at the price of 2024, is valued at USD 1.9 billion. In contrast, the baseline situation is projected to result in significant emissions, as open dumping and open burning result in emissions of 98,463 Gg CO₂ equivalent and 59,741 Gg CO₂ equivalent, respectively. Conversely, composting and recycling were responsible for lower emissions, while landfills with gas recovery indicated the largest potential CERs.

Conclusively, the results emphasize the economic as well as environmental advantages of moving away from the harmful trend towards sustainable alternatives, making it clear that carbon trading can offer a real economic incentive for bettering practices pertaining to waste management, as well as aiding in climate change mitigation in a rapidly urbanizing environment.

This particular research further identifies the economic potential of carbon trading with regard to waste management and climate preservation.